Monday, August 19, 2013
Palm oil to test resistance, fall
Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended higher and posted their best weekly performance since early February, as rising exports boosted investor optimism. Malaysian palm oil exports for the Aug. 1-15 period rose 17.7 per cent from the same period a month ago to 644,589 tonnes, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Thursday.
Another surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported an increase of 18.7 per cent for the same period. The latest end-stocks report by industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board which indicated July levels were only 1 per cent higher than the previous month's despite strong production also supported views for a robust demand. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer has set its crude palm oil export tax for September at 4.5 per cent, unchanged since March and this could favour exports from Malaysia further compared to Indonesia.
CPO active month futures moved perfectly in line with our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, while the supports hold in the 2,190-95 zone there is a good possibility of prices attempting to crossover the recent highs at MYR 2,300/tonne. We saw prices testing MYR 2,335 and the declining .
As we have maintained, though the possibility of a retracement exists in the coming sessions, the underlying trend still remains weak and we see such a pullback as a corrective one within a downtrend. This rally could fizzle out soon and start testing supports near MYR 2,270-75 levels where some minor support can be seen. Decline below MYR 2,245 could once again revive bearish hopes for MYR 2,095 or even lower. Unexpected rise above MYR 2,361 could hint at a rise towards MYR 2,420 levels now.
The wave counts still remains mixed and prefer for the time being to go with possibility of an end of wave “C” at MYR 2,220now. A decline below MYR 2,350 has dashed our bullish hopes. Ideally, prices could come down towards MYR 2,095 or even lower in the bigger picture. With the way prices have been behaving, the preferred wave counts now could be an extended wave “A-B-C-D-E” and eventually a break below MYR 2,200 opening the way for lower levels. RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearishness to be intact. Only a crossover above the zero line again could hint at a bullish reversal now.
Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the resistances and decline .
Supports are at MYR 2,275, 2,245, 2,160. Resistances are at MYR 2,325, 2,355 and 2,400.
GNANASEKAAR .T
Businessline
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Those Who Know, Do Not Speak
Those who know, do not speak.
Those who speak, do not know.
Close your mouth.
Shut the gates.
Be soft.
Untangle your knots.
Soften your brilliance.
Become one with the dust.
This is the profound union.
No one can get close to you,
yet they cannot be distant either.
No one can help or harm you.
No one can honor or disgrace you.
Thus you achieve the highest state of humankind.
http://taotechingdaily.com/tao-te-ching-chapter-56-essay/
Those who speak, do not know.
Close your mouth.
Shut the gates.
Be soft.
Untangle your knots.
Soften your brilliance.
Become one with the dust.
This is the profound union.
No one can get close to you,
yet they cannot be distant either.
No one can help or harm you.
No one can honor or disgrace you.
Thus you achieve the highest state of humankind.
http://taotechingdaily.com/tao-te-ching-chapter-56-essay/
Thursday, August 1, 2013
August 2013
-2 2223 (31.07.13)
+2 2243 (01.08.13)
Points : -40
Profit/(Loss) : (RM1000)
+2 2244 (01.08.13)
-2 2265 (02.08.13)
Points : 42
Profit/(Loss) : RM1050
-2 2265 (02.08.13)
+2 2255 (05.08.13)
Points : 20
Profit/(Loss) : RM500
As at 05.08.13 no positions. Market will be closed for a long holiday...
+2 2240 (06.08.13)
-2 2255 (06.08.13)
Points : 30
Profit/(Loss) : RM750
+2 2220 (12.08.13)
-2 2245 (12.08.13)
Points : 50
Profit/(Loss) : RM1250
As at close of 12.08.13 no position.
-2 2274 (13.08.13)
+2 2309 (15.08.13)
Points : -70
Profit/(Loss) : (RM1750)
With this huge loss, sure was not up to posting. Sometimes being displine is one thing being helpless is another. Not a good feel..
+2 2290 (15.08.13)
-2 2320 (16.08.13)
Points : 60
Profit/(Loss) : RM1500
-2 2325 (16.08.13)
+2 2336 (19.08.13)
Points : -22
Profit/(Loss) : (RM550)
+2 2336 (19.08.13)
-2 2330 (19.08.13)
Points : -12
Profit/(Loss) : (RM300)
-2 2330 (19.08.13)
+2 2311 (20.08.13)
Points : 38
Profit/(Loss) : RM950
Not and easy week ... take give back... just need to have lots of patience.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Palm oil may test resistance, drop
Malaysian palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended higher on Friday on short-covering and bargain hunting after prices plunged to four-year lows on forecasts of higher oilseeds supplies. Ideal weather in the US Midwest could lead to a record harvest boosting supplies.
Crude palm oil futures reacted to weakness in the soya complex posting a 3.5 per cent drop this week amid a bumper harvest and soft export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports during July 1-25 fell 6.7 per cent from the same period a month ago, showing a mild recovery. In related markets, energy prices, too, fell on worries over weak economic activity in China and riding output in the US recoveries in crude palm oil could be short-lived going forward as the fundamental undercurrent remains extremely weak unless weather becomes erratic in the edible oil complex.Crude palm oil active month futures tanked lower as expected. As mentioned in the earlier update, weakness persists on the bigger picture and prices could find it difficult to sustain and head lower again. The 2,300 Malaysian ringgit (MYR) a tonne levels, could be a significant resistance in the coming sessions. Ideally, prices could once again start declining towards 2,095 MYR/t or even lower in the coming months. Oversold conditions warn of a pullback in the coming sessions, but the underlying trend hints at further weakness ahead. Any retracement could get capped in the 2220-45 MYR/t range initially and further resistance will be seen at 2285-2300 MYR/t levels.
The wave counts still remains mixed and prefer for the time being to go with possibility of an end of wave “C” at 2220 MYR/t now. A decline below 2,350 MYR/t has dashed our bullish hopes. Ideally, prices could come down towards 2,095 MYR/t or even lower in the bigger picture. With the way prices have been behaving, the preferred wave counts now could be an extended wave “A-B-C-D-E” and eventually a break below 2,200 MYR/t opening the way for lower levels. RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearish reversal. Only a crossover above the zero line again could hint at a bullish reversal.Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the resistance levels and then decline again.
Supports are at MYR 2130, 2095, 2020. Resistances are at MYR 2220, 2250 and 2285.
GNANASEKAAR . T
Businessline
Friday, July 19, 2013
The Advantages of Trading Alone
People sometimes experiment with the idea to trade with other people. It might work, but for me, it did not. I trade alone. The advantages of trading alone are:
You are free to make your own decisions without having to find a way to explain the rationale of your decisions to anybody else. Your time and effort can be focussed on what the market is doing and how you react to it, instead of worrying about the psychological and emotional dynamics of a trading group.
You are free to experiment, based on the knowledge you gain from your experiences and your self-education, without having to asking others to allocate a certain portion of the trading funds to let you conduct your experiments.
No one can blame you for their failures. No time is wasted on justifying your actions or feeling guilty about the impact of your trading blunders on someone else's financial situation.
You alone are responsible and accountable for your own success or failure. You cannot shift the blame to anybody else. It could be disappointing to some knowing that they cannot blame anyone else if they fail. For others, it is very empowering to know that they, and they alone, are in charge of their own destiny.
Personally, I believe that a person should trade alone first before he or she decides to trade with other people. This allows the individual to develop his own philosophy and his own understanding about himself and the market. I understand, however, that not everybody can trade alone because it requires a set of beliefs and values to be part of the trader's character. Not all people are created with the same set of characteristics. Not everyone can operate under the solitude of the journey. For example, there are people who need social contact more than others. Individuals who are social by nature and those who solve problems by talking to other people, may have difficulty undertaking a solitary endeavour.
Furthermore, there are people who do not have faith in their abilities and in their capacity to learn to trade successfully. I know of individuals who need constant reassurance before they take any step towards their goals. In similar circumstances, trading in a group may be the only option available for some people to give them the push they need: otherwise, they may never start.
by Marquez Comelab
You are free to make your own decisions without having to find a way to explain the rationale of your decisions to anybody else. Your time and effort can be focussed on what the market is doing and how you react to it, instead of worrying about the psychological and emotional dynamics of a trading group.
You are free to experiment, based on the knowledge you gain from your experiences and your self-education, without having to asking others to allocate a certain portion of the trading funds to let you conduct your experiments.
No one can blame you for their failures. No time is wasted on justifying your actions or feeling guilty about the impact of your trading blunders on someone else's financial situation.
You alone are responsible and accountable for your own success or failure. You cannot shift the blame to anybody else. It could be disappointing to some knowing that they cannot blame anyone else if they fail. For others, it is very empowering to know that they, and they alone, are in charge of their own destiny.
Personally, I believe that a person should trade alone first before he or she decides to trade with other people. This allows the individual to develop his own philosophy and his own understanding about himself and the market. I understand, however, that not everybody can trade alone because it requires a set of beliefs and values to be part of the trader's character. Not all people are created with the same set of characteristics. Not everyone can operate under the solitude of the journey. For example, there are people who need social contact more than others. Individuals who are social by nature and those who solve problems by talking to other people, may have difficulty undertaking a solitary endeavour.
Furthermore, there are people who do not have faith in their abilities and in their capacity to learn to trade successfully. I know of individuals who need constant reassurance before they take any step towards their goals. In similar circumstances, trading in a group may be the only option available for some people to give them the push they need: otherwise, they may never start.
by Marquez Comelab
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Palm oil likely to test support
July 13, 2013:
Malaysian palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended sharply lower Friday due to several negative factors. Rumors about European lawmakers backing a proposal to limit the use of biofuels in the region's transport sector coupled with higher than expected soy stockpiles by the U.S. Department of Agriculture sparked selling pressure. During the week prices recovered following dovish remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but the rise could not be sustained, as concerns that palm oil stockpiles could rise again as CPO production picks up in the second half of 2013 weighed on sentiment. An uptick in production data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) signalled the start of a higher yield cycle. Stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, fell to a more than two-year low of 1.61 million tonnes in June as demand outstripped supply.
CHART
CPO active month futures are moving in a range with mild positive bias. As mentioned earlier though prices could retrace to 2400 MYR/ton levels in the week, the trend still remains bearish and weakness persists on the bigger picture. As hinted in the previous update prices could find it difficult to sustain in the 2385-2400 MYR/ton levels and head lower again. As prices have gone below 2,300 MYR/ton, ideally it should start declining towards 2,200 MYR/ton or even lower to 2095 MYR/ton in the coming months. Any retracement could get capped in the 2325MYR/ton followed by 2357MYR/ton levels now. Only an unexpected rise above 2395 MYR/ton could cause doubts on our bearish view.
The wave counts still remains mixed and prefer for the time being to go with possibility of an end of wave “C” at 2220 MYR/ton now. A decline below 2,350 MYR/ton has dashed our bullish hopes. Ideally, prices could come down towards 2,095 MYR/ton or even lower in the bigger picture. With the way prices have been behaving, the preferred wave counts now could be an extended wave “A-B-C-D-E” and eventually a break below 2,200 MYR/ton opening the way for lower levels. RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD have gone below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearish reversal. Only a crossover above the zero line again could indicate a reversal in trend.
Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the support levels.
Supports are at MYR, 2245, 2215, 2160 Resistances are at MYR 2325, 2357 & 2385.
GNANASEKAAR .T
Businessline
Malaysian palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended sharply lower Friday due to several negative factors. Rumors about European lawmakers backing a proposal to limit the use of biofuels in the region's transport sector coupled with higher than expected soy stockpiles by the U.S. Department of Agriculture sparked selling pressure. During the week prices recovered following dovish remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, but the rise could not be sustained, as concerns that palm oil stockpiles could rise again as CPO production picks up in the second half of 2013 weighed on sentiment. An uptick in production data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) signalled the start of a higher yield cycle. Stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, fell to a more than two-year low of 1.61 million tonnes in June as demand outstripped supply.
CHART
CPO active month futures are moving in a range with mild positive bias. As mentioned earlier though prices could retrace to 2400 MYR/ton levels in the week, the trend still remains bearish and weakness persists on the bigger picture. As hinted in the previous update prices could find it difficult to sustain in the 2385-2400 MYR/ton levels and head lower again. As prices have gone below 2,300 MYR/ton, ideally it should start declining towards 2,200 MYR/ton or even lower to 2095 MYR/ton in the coming months. Any retracement could get capped in the 2325MYR/ton followed by 2357MYR/ton levels now. Only an unexpected rise above 2395 MYR/ton could cause doubts on our bearish view.
The wave counts still remains mixed and prefer for the time being to go with possibility of an end of wave “C” at 2220 MYR/ton now. A decline below 2,350 MYR/ton has dashed our bullish hopes. Ideally, prices could come down towards 2,095 MYR/ton or even lower in the bigger picture. With the way prices have been behaving, the preferred wave counts now could be an extended wave “A-B-C-D-E” and eventually a break below 2,200 MYR/ton opening the way for lower levels. RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD have gone below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearish reversal. Only a crossover above the zero line again could indicate a reversal in trend.
Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the support levels.
Supports are at MYR, 2245, 2215, 2160 Resistances are at MYR 2325, 2357 & 2385.
GNANASEKAAR .T
Businessline
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
July 2013
Its hard to tolerate friends who criticize and put you down and by shooting hurting arrows and words of sarcasm. All I can say is, there is little difference in friends, but that little difference makes a big difference. The little difference between the REAL friends is attitude and the big difference is whether it is positive or negative. I rather be around positive attitude friends any day.
If you are not doing what you love, then you are wasting your time.....
Positions :
FCPO
+2 2344 (03.07.13)
-2 2373 (04.07.13)
Points : 58
Profit/(Loss) : RM1450
-2 2375 (04.07.13)
+2 2371 (05.07.13)
Points : 8
Profit/(Loss) : RM200
+2 2371 (05.07.13)
-2 2373 (08.07.13)
Points : 4
Profit/(Loss) : RM100
Could have had a larger profit.
-2 2372 (08.07.13)
+2 2389 (09.07.13)
Points : -34
Profit/(Loss) : (RM850)
This trade I am not confident.
+2 2386 (09.07.13)
-2 2376 (10.07.13)
Points : -20
Profit/(Loss) : (RM500)
-2 2377 (10.07.13)
+2 2256 (15.07.13)
Points : 242
Profit/(Loss) : RM6050
+2 2257 (15.07.13) October month
-2 2260 (16.07.13)
Points : 6
Profit/(Loss) : RM150
As at 16.07.13 no position
-2 2240 (16.07.13)
+2 2265 (17.07.13)
Points : -50
Profit/(Loss) : (RM1250)
Entry at last hour
That is a big chunck to return back. Thats is how the trading world is. Expect the unexpected.
+2 2263 (17.07.13)
-2 2293 (19.07.13)
Points : 60
Profit/(Loss) : RM1500
Taking a break for a couple of days. All to all it has been a good week.
At current 19.07.13 no position.
-2 2286 (19.07.13)
+2 2284 (19.07.13)
Points : 4
Profit/(Loss) : RM100
Cant help it... just had to re-enter.
6.36pm- IF I had stayed on following the system... it would have been another additional 60pts. For the whole day the thought was at the back of my mind that I would not be around next Monday and Tuesday. So need to close all position today. That was the reason why I exited this trade so early..
Its alright will mumble about it now.. I have a very short memory.. :D
-2 2260 (23.07.13)
+2 2218 (25.07.13)
Points : 42
Profit/(Loss) : RM1050
Today's entry is a case of react too hastyly. I took some time off from the market and today was the day I had the chance to monitor the fcpo price. Guess what... I was like a small kid that rushed out to grab the first swing(entry price) I saw the minute the gate was opened (signal).. LOL.. Naturally, I got a horrible price.
This is market.. on the day of entry I thought the entry price was poor. But little did I know it turned out better than expected. :)
+2 2215 (25.07.13)
-2 2191 (25.07.13)
Points : -48
Profit/(Loss) : (RM1200)
I can feel the heat. Ouch..
-2 2170 (25.07.13)
+2 2181 (26.07.13)
Points : -22
Profit/(Loss) : (RM550)
Somedays nothing seems right.. Looking forward to a better next week.
+2 2176 (29.07.13)
-2 2166 (29.07.13)
Points : -20
Profit/(Loss) : (RM500)
-2 2166 (29.07.13)
+2 2183 (30.07.13)
Points : -34
Profit/(Loss) : (RM850)
+2 2183 (30.07.13)
-2 2223 (31.07.13)
Points : 80
Profit/(Loss) : RM2000
-2 2223 (31.07.13)
Open